Insights from SkyWater on job growth, economic uncertainty, and hiring trends in the Upper Midwest.

While the headlines have been dominated by economic volatility and market anxiety in recent weeks, the hiring landscape remains relatively strong, especially in the Upper Midwest. Despite broader uncertainty, we see resilience in employment numbers and steady activity across many industries.

The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March, far exceeding the projected 130,000. That marks 51 consecutive months of job growth, the second-longest expansion in U.S. history. For employers, this means competition for top talent is still very real, and delays in hiring processes may continue to result in lost candidates.

That said, it’s not all smooth sailing. The financial markets are highly volatile, and the outcome of ongoing tariff negotiations remains unclear. While no one can predict exactly how those factors will affect hiring long-term, we’re watching closely for signs of market-driven slowdowns, especially in sectors like finance, real estate, and logistics where interest rates and global trade have a more immediate impact.

What Employers Should Expect in the Months Ahead

1. Continued Job Growth—With Caution
While job creation remains strong, many employers are proceeding more cautiously than a year ago. Hiring managers take longer to make decisions, extend interview timelines, and reevaluate salary ranges more frequently. Still, top talent, especially in accounting, finance, engineering, and tech, is moving quickly. Here's a link to LinkedIn's March 2024 Worforce report.

2. The Midwest Advantage
One of the benefits of hiring in the Upper Midwest is the region’s tendency to avoid dramatic market swings. Unlike coastal markets, we don’t see rapid hiring sprees during boom times or deep cuts in downturns. This measured, steady approach to growth creates a more stable hiring climate and positions Midwest companies well to weather national fluctuations.

3. A Potential Recession (But a Manageable One)
While there’s no consensus on whether or when a recession might occur, leading banks have placed the odds between 45% and 60%. If a recession does occur, history shows it may be shorter and more sector-specific than broader economic downturns in the past. At SkyWater, clients successfully navigate these cycles by staying proactive: investing in long-term talent, retaining strong performers, and streamlining interview processes to avoid losing top candidates to faster-moving competitors.

4. Time-to-Fill Is Still a Challenge
Even with caution in the market, high-quality candidates remain in demand. We continue to see employers struggle when hiring processes are drawn out, either due to internal delays or a lack of alignment on candidate profiles. Speed and clarity remain two of the biggest competitive advantages in today’s market.

What We Recommend

• Stay nimble. Build flexibility into your hiring process to move quickly on top candidates.

• Know your must-haves. Clearly define the “non-negotiables” for each role to streamline decision-making.

• Maintain communication. Candidates expect transparency, even when processes slow down. Silence is one of the top reasons candidates drop out of otherwise strong opportunities.

• Consider future-proofing. If a slowdown does occur, it may create short-term hiring opportunities; when competitors pause hiring, you may be able to bring on key talent you couldn’t access before.

At SkyWater Search Partners, we monitor job market trends across every industry we serve. If you’re unsure how to navigate hiring in today’s climate, or want guidance on positioning your roles for success, we’re here to help.

Let’s talk about what’s next for your team.